But it did occur to me that there is some special value to drawing to an unlikely nut. Once it hits, you’re guaranteed to get the decision right. Assuming you bet it out, you can’t make a mistake once it hits. And that fact adds some value to drawing to an inside straight.

UTG ($23.95)
MP1 ($25)
MP2 ($30.80)
CO ($38.80)
Hero (Button) ($25)
SB ($57.20)
BB ($25)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 10, 9
2 folds, MP2 calls $0.25, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1, 2 folds, MP2 calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.35) 9, 9, K (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $2, MP2 raises to $6.50, Hero calls $4.50

Turn: ($15.35) J (2 players)
MP2 bets $23.30 (All-In), Hero calls $17.50 (All-In)

River: ($50.35) 4 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $50.35 | Rake: $2.45

Results in white below:
Hero had 10, 9 (three of a kind, nines).
MP2 had 8, K (two pair, Kings and nines).
Outcome: Hero won $47.90

Since they’re expecting you to be full of it when you’re on the button, the value of playing unusual hands on the button and only on the button increases. Don’t ever stab with them, but when they hit, you can get paid off big because they’ll never believe it.

The correct counter-strategy is therefore to play tight and aggressive from the button — very aggressive.

So, the new plan, in general is: If i don’t feel like raising, I’m folding. The exceptions are if I’m getting pot odds on a draw post-flop, or if I can set-mine. I’m not even gonna think about implied odds except pre-flop. In early position, I’m folding everything other than big pairs and big slick suited. In middle position I’ll limp small and medium pairs. In high position I’ll raise medium and big pairs and big slick. And on the button and the button alone, I’ll play LAG very occasionally. With TPTK, I should be able to raise pre-flop and fold to a re-raise or a turn stop-n-go.

Let’s see how it goes.

This acknowledgment should tell me something important. Loose/Passive is a losing style of poker.

Bad move. Bottom set couldn’t find the fold. I felt too attached to the pot to know better though.

He did think about his call for a long time on the river, and his call was in fact donktastic. But I should still be ashamed of myself. Actually, I am ashamed of myself.

UTG ($25.30)
UTG+1 ($27.10)
MP1 ($14.65)
MP2 ($26.95)
CO ($7.90)
Button ($47.95)
SB ($20.45)
Hero (BB) ($24.05)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, 7
3 folds, MP2 calls $0.25, CO calls $0.25, 1 fold, SB calls $0.15, Hero checks

Flop: ($1) 3, Q, J (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP2 checks, CO checks

Turn: ($1) 9 (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1, MP2 calls $1, 2 folds

River: ($3) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $22.80 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: $3 | Rake: $0.10

Results in white below:
Hero didn’t show A, 7 (flush, Ace high).
Outcome: Hero won $2.90

If he had a set, or even two pair, he might have called a bullyish all-in on the turn, because he might have talked himself into believing that he has outs. But on the river, my push was probably just dumb. The only hand that calls me on the river is the second nut, and even then the second nut could fold it down.

I felt like testing the waters. But instead, I should have just shoved it in.

Nonetheless, over my last two sessions I’m up four buy-ins, and that feels a lot more validating than folding bottom set on a flushed board.